A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
